Despite concerns that Covid-19 could drive down discovered volumes to their lowest levels in decades, exploration activity has been resilient this year. Found resources already exceed 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and are projected to settle at around 10 billion boe by year-end, a Rystad Energy analysis reveals.
About 3.75 billion boe, or 46% of total discovered volumes, are gas while liquid volumes are estimated at 4.31 billion boe. Yet-uncounted resources in finds like Sakarya in Turkey point to additional upside, meaning that 2020 will avoid returning to the multi-decade low seen in 2016 at just 7.7 billion boe.
The 73 new discoveries announced this year (through October) are evenly split between land and sea with 36 onshore and 37 offshore. Russia leads in terms of discovery volume, with 1.51 billion boe, while Suriname comes second with 1.39 billion boe and the UAE follows third with 1.1 billion boe.
Of the offshore volumes, which account for slightly over three-quarters of discovered resources, 33% was found in ultra-deep waters, 38% in deepwater areas and 29% in shallow waters. Looking at the timing of the discoveries, the third quarter was the weakest with about 2 billion boe of new finds, compared to about 2.7 billion boe during each of the first two quarters.
“Global oil and gas operators will chase plenty of additional volumes in wildcats planned for the final two months of the 2020, although some may not be completed until early 2021 and will therefore add to next year’s tally. We believe discovered volumes are likely to settle at around 10 billion boe,” says Palzor Shenga, senior upstream analyst at Rystad Energy.
Source: Rystad Energy
