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Investments from global exploration and production companies (E&P) in 2021 are projected to reach around $380 billion, almost flat year-on-year, a Rystad Energy report shows. About 20% or $76 billion of the estimated 2021 investments could be at risk of deferral or reduction, with the remaining amount being categorized in the safer tiers of low and medium-range risk.
The amount is our base case scenario, but with 2020’s market turbulence fresh in mind and the currently uncertain roll-out timing of the recently announced Covid-19 vaccines, it’s worth expanding the forecast to a range of $350 billion to $430 billion, incorporating some scenario deviation.
Investments may rebound to the pre-crisis level of $530 billion by 2023 if oil prices rise to around $65 per barrel – though we should keep in mind that after the previous market crisis in 2014, annual E&P investments never recovered to the pre-crisis level of about $880 billion and instead settled at $500 billion to $550 billion.
Much of that reduction was due to supply chain and efficiency improvements, leaving little scope for further such reductions this time around. Instead, E&P players are pulling other levers to weather this market downturn, such as deferring infill drilling programs, projects FIDs and start-ups, reporting significant write-offs on stranded assets, and reshaping their portfolios to stabilize returns.
“As E&Ps are also speeding up a transition into low-carbon energy, it is possible that this time, too, upstream investments will not return to pre-crisis levels in the long-term, even if they do recover somewhat over the next few years,“ says Olga Savenkova, upstream analyst at Rystad Energy.
To provide a deeper insight into next year’s expected E&P investments, we have made a risk-weighted analysis of the most critical market indicators to see how much of the total expected 2021 investment is high risk, medium risk and low risk, based on the commerciality of the projects or wells.
Of the total $380 billion of projected investments, about 60% ($234 billion) is likely to come from producing assets, which have two main spending channels: facility and well capex. Within facility capex, about 38% is spent on facility maintenance. This is believed to be a low-risk category, as operators were forced to postpone most of their planned maintenance programs in 2020 due to coronavirus restrictions and lower oil prices. Maintenance work will therefore have high priority in 2021 to avoid unplanned outages in the future.
Well capex is split by the wells’ breakeven price, which gives a clear idea of how much of it might be at risk of deferral or repeal due to lower oil prices. About 23% ($37 billion) of the total well capex is assigned to wells with a breakeven price higher than $55 per barrel, which puts this spending at high risk of deferral. Wells with breakeven price in the range of $30 to $55 per barrel are seen as medium risk, while those with a breakeven below $30 per barrel are low-risk drilling opportunities.
A similar logic is applied for the under-development discovered and undiscovered projects, but with the projects’ breakeven price as a reference point. We see that 10% of the capex associated with projects under development and 30% of the capex for discoveries and undiscovered projects may face deferral due to weak economics.
All in all, this analysis shows that about 20% or $76 billion of the estimated 2021 capex could be at risk of deferral or reduction, while roughly $300 billion is considered low or medium risk.
Source: Rystad
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Valaris Limited announced new contracts awarded subsequent to issuing the Company’s most recent fleet status report on February 21, 2023. Three-year contract with Petrobras for drillship VALARIS DS-8. The rig will be reactivated for this contract. The total contract value is approximately $500 million, including a $30 million mobilization fee. 100-day contract with a TotalEnergies affiliate for drillship VALARIS DS-12. The contract is expected to commence in second quarter 2023. 70-day contract with Beach Energy offshore New Zealand for heavy duty modern jackup VALARIS 107. The contract is expected to commence in third quarter 2023. The total contract value is approximately $26 million. President and Chief Executive Officer Anton Dibowitz said, “We are particularly pleased to have secured the award for preservation stacked drillship VALARIS DS-8, for a contract that is expected to generate a meaningful return over the firm contract term, and we remain focused on exercising our operational leverage in a disciplined manner. This most recent award represents the sixth contract awarded to one of our high-quality stacked floaters since mid-2021, and speaks volumes about our demonstrated track record of project execution when reactivating rigs.” Dibowitz added, “Following the reactivation of VALARIS DS-17 and DS-8, we will have ten floaters working across the golden triangle, including four drillships in Brazil, a market where we expect to see continued growth over the next several years.” Updated Guidance As a result of the contract awarded to VALARIS DS-8, which will require the rig to be reactivated from preservation stack, we are updating our first quarter 2023 and full-year 2023 guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call on February 21, 2023. First Quarter 2023 Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $5 million to $385 million to $395 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $5 million to negative $5 million to breakeven. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $25 million to $30 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Full-Year 2023 Revenues are anticipated to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $60 million to $1.49 billion to $1.59 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $60 million to $180 million to $220 million. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $280 million to $320 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Capital expenditures are expected to increase by $60 million to $320 million to $360 million. Source: Valaris Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
Seadrill Limited announced that the West Neptune has executed approximately six months of term extensions with LLOG Exploration Offshore, L.L.C in the US Gulf of Mexico. The extensions will commence in direct continuation of the existing term, and will keep the rig busy until Q3 2024, furthering Seadrill and LLOG’s long-term association. Total contract value for the extension is approximately $79 million. Source: Seadrill Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
Semisub rig owner Dolphin Drilling has inked a new contract with Peak Petroleum in Nigeria for its 1974-built Blackford Dolphin. The firm contract, which follows the letter of award in January, gives the Euronext Growth-listed owner of three rigs the potential to extend the unit’s backlog by a minimum of 120 days and up to 485 days. The deal adds to and will be a direct continuation of the previously announced 12-month contract with General Hydrocarbon Limited (GHL). Øystein Stray Spetalen-backed company said the effective dayrate associated with the minimum firm period of the contract is $325,000, including the mobilisation fee. “The final award of the contract for Blackford Dolphin shows the opportunities in Nigeria at a strong dayrate, in addition to building on the backlog for the rig. It also underlines the attractiveness of our assets, and we look forward to returning to revenue-generating operations in 2023,” noted Bjørnar Iversen, CEO of Dolphin Drilling. Source: Dolphin Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
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