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Rystad Energy forecasts offshore spending will outgrow spending on onshore shale activities this year. Service companies exposed to the offshore subsea market and the maintenance, modifications and operations (MMO) sector are set to benefit from this trend reversal.
At current oil price levels, spending on land rigs, fracking and other services for the shale industry is likely to stay essentially flat in 2019. The offshore service market, too, will feel the effects of the recent oil price slide, but this sector is nevertheless projected to grow by a robust 4% this year, according to Rystad Energy forecasts.
“Many would expect offshore spending to be cut as drastically as shale, but offshore budgets were at a 10-year low last year, after four years of intense cost focus, and from that level you don’t need much additional activity or inflation to drive up the market,†Rystad Energy head of oilfield services research Audun Martinsen said.
Since oil prices fell in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the oil market outlook for 2019 appeared more bearish, shale budgets for this year have been cut drastically to compensate for the anticipated loss of revenues.
“We saw the tendency already last month that the shale service market started to hit the brakes. The number of fracked wells per day dropped from an average of around 50 wells per day to 44 wells per day, and frack service pricing continued to fall in the fourth quarter of 2018. For the full year of 2019 we expect more or less the same number of wells completed, at around 20,000 wells, and we do not anticipate seeing utilization returning to the levels as seen in early 2018,†Martinsen said.
Rystad Energy expects the uptick in offshore spending to be driven by exploration and greenfield projects. In addition, operational expenditure (opex) budgets will likely swell thanks to cost inflation, more fields coming on stream, and a buildup of work that needs to be completed.
New research from Rystad Energy shows the inflection point for when the short cycle shale business could again grow faster than offshore. According to this research, a price of $64 per barrel of Brent crude would see both shale and offshore grow at around 5%, but in a scenario where Brent climbs to $70 per barrel, the shale industry could achieve an impressive 14% growth.
“Investors now need to position their bets correctly based on their price strip assumptions. As long as oil prices are below $60 a barrel for Brent it could be interesting to take a second look at service contractors exposed to the offshore sector to see what they have to offer as compared to service companies exposed to shale,†Martinsen added.
By breaking down capex and opex budgets across resource types, and allocating the spending to the associated service segments, Rystad Energy estimates revenue growth based on known backlog, latest contract awards and regional exposure.
 “It seems that the names that will be able to deliver the best revenue growth are the service companies exposed to the offshore subsea market and MMO. This is a clear switch from 2018, when it was the shale names that were market share winners in the global service market,†Martinsen concludes.
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Valaris Limited announced new contracts awarded subsequent to issuing the Company’s most recent fleet status report on February 21, 2023. Three-year contract with Petrobras for drillship VALARIS DS-8. The rig will be reactivated for this contract. The total contract value is approximately $500 million, including a $30 million mobilization fee. 100-day contract with a TotalEnergies affiliate for drillship VALARIS DS-12. The contract is expected to commence in second quarter 2023. 70-day contract with Beach Energy offshore New Zealand for heavy duty modern jackup VALARIS 107. The contract is expected to commence in third quarter 2023. The total contract value is approximately $26 million. President and Chief Executive Officer Anton Dibowitz said, “We are particularly pleased to have secured the award for preservation stacked drillship VALARIS DS-8, for a contract that is expected to generate a meaningful return over the firm contract term, and we remain focused on exercising our operational leverage in a disciplined manner. This most recent award represents the sixth contract awarded to one of our high-quality stacked floaters since mid-2021, and speaks volumes about our demonstrated track record of project execution when reactivating rigs.” Dibowitz added, “Following the reactivation of VALARIS DS-17 and DS-8, we will have ten floaters working across the golden triangle, including four drillships in Brazil, a market where we expect to see continued growth over the next several years.” Updated Guidance As a result of the contract awarded to VALARIS DS-8, which will require the rig to be reactivated from preservation stack, we are updating our first quarter 2023 and full-year 2023 guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call on February 21, 2023. First Quarter 2023 Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $5 million to $385 million to $395 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $5 million to negative $5 million to breakeven. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $25 million to $30 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Full-Year 2023 Revenues are anticipated to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $60 million to $1.49 billion to $1.59 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $60 million to $180 million to $220 million. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $280 million to $320 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Capital expenditures are expected to increase by $60 million to $320 million to $360 million. Source: Valaris Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
Seadrill Limited announced that the West Neptune has executed approximately six months of term extensions with LLOG Exploration Offshore, L.L.C in the US Gulf of Mexico. The extensions will commence in direct continuation of the existing term, and will keep the rig busy until Q3 2024, furthering Seadrill and LLOG’s long-term association. Total contract value for the extension is approximately $79 million. Source: Seadrill Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
Semisub rig owner Dolphin Drilling has inked a new contract with Peak Petroleum in Nigeria for its 1974-built Blackford Dolphin. The firm contract, which follows the letter of award in January, gives the Euronext Growth-listed owner of three rigs the potential to extend the unit’s backlog by a minimum of 120 days and up to 485 days. The deal adds to and will be a direct continuation of the previously announced 12-month contract with General Hydrocarbon Limited (GHL). Øystein Stray Spetalen-backed company said the effective dayrate associated with the minimum firm period of the contract is $325,000, including the mobilisation fee. “The final award of the contract for Blackford Dolphin shows the opportunities in Nigeria at a strong dayrate, in addition to building on the backlog for the rig. It also underlines the attractiveness of our assets, and we look forward to returning to revenue-generating operations in 2023,” noted Bjørnar Iversen, CEO of Dolphin Drilling. Source: Dolphin Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
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