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The toll of the Covid-19 pandemic on upstream investments in the first two years of the downturn is estimated at a whopping $285 billion, and although spending will slowly start to rise from 2022, it will not reach pre-crisis levels in the coming period, according to a Rystad Energy report. The shale sector has been the most affected, with conventional exploration and investments in mature assets suffering the least thus far.
In February 2020, before Covid-19 started impacting the global energy system, Rystad Energy estimated global upstream investments for the year would end up at around $530 billion, almost at the same level as in 2019. Our forecast at the time suggested 2021 investments would remain in line with the previous year’s level.
However, as the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a collapse in oil prices during the early part of the second quarter last year, E&P companies slashed investment budgets to protect cash flow. This spending trend was not reversed in 2021, when prices rose. Compared to pre-pandemic estimates for 2020 and 2021, we observe that spending fell by around $145 billion last year and will end up losing $140 billion by the end of this year. This implies Covid-19 removed 27% of planned investments.
Upstream spending was limited to $382 billion in 2020 and is forecast to marginally grow to $390 billion this year. Rystad Energy expects the effect of the pandemic to be a lasting one as – even though spending will start growing from 2022 – it will not return to the pre-pandemic level of $530 billion. Growth will be limited and investments will only inch up annually, rising to just over $480 billion in 2025, when this report’s forecast ends.
Over the two-year period between 2020 and 2021, shale/tight oil investments are the ones most affected in both absolute and percentage terms, losing $96 billion of the previously expected spending, or 39% for the sector. Exploration spending is expected to drop by $19 billion, or 22%, compared to what was previously forecast. Greenfield investment in new conventional projects will suffer a $78 billion loss, or 28%, while brownfield investment in existing such projects will fall by $92 billion, or 20%.
“Since shale/tight oil is both the segment with the highest decline in activity and the supply source in greatest need of continuous reinvestment to keep production growing, the immediate impact on output from this sector has been significant,” says Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at Rystad Energy.
Source: Rystad
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Valaris Limited announced new contracts awarded subsequent to issuing the Company’s most recent fleet status report on February 21, 2023. Three-year contract with Petrobras for drillship VALARIS DS-8. The rig will be reactivated for this contract. The total contract value is approximately $500 million, including a $30 million mobilization fee. 100-day contract with a TotalEnergies affiliate for drillship VALARIS DS-12. The contract is expected to commence in second quarter 2023. 70-day contract with Beach Energy offshore New Zealand for heavy duty modern jackup VALARIS 107. The contract is expected to commence in third quarter 2023. The total contract value is approximately $26 million. President and Chief Executive Officer Anton Dibowitz said, “We are particularly pleased to have secured the award for preservation stacked drillship VALARIS DS-8, for a contract that is expected to generate a meaningful return over the firm contract term, and we remain focused on exercising our operational leverage in a disciplined manner. This most recent award represents the sixth contract awarded to one of our high-quality stacked floaters since mid-2021, and speaks volumes about our demonstrated track record of project execution when reactivating rigs.” Dibowitz added, “Following the reactivation of VALARIS DS-17 and DS-8, we will have ten floaters working across the golden triangle, including four drillships in Brazil, a market where we expect to see continued growth over the next several years.” Updated Guidance As a result of the contract awarded to VALARIS DS-8, which will require the rig to be reactivated from preservation stack, we are updating our first quarter 2023 and full-year 2023 guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call on February 21, 2023. First Quarter 2023 Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $5 million to $385 million to $395 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $5 million to negative $5 million to breakeven. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $25 million to $30 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Full-Year 2023 Revenues are anticipated to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $60 million to $1.49 billion to $1.59 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $60 million to $180 million to $220 million. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $280 million to $320 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Capital expenditures are expected to increase by $60 million to $320 million to $360 million. Source: Valaris Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
Seadrill Limited announced that the West Neptune has executed approximately six months of term extensions with LLOG Exploration Offshore, L.L.C in the US Gulf of Mexico. The extensions will commence in direct continuation of the existing term, and will keep the rig busy until Q3 2024, furthering Seadrill and LLOG’s long-term association. Total contract value for the extension is approximately $79 million. Source: Seadrill Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
Semisub rig owner Dolphin Drilling has inked a new contract with Peak Petroleum in Nigeria for its 1974-built Blackford Dolphin. The firm contract, which follows the letter of award in January, gives the Euronext Growth-listed owner of three rigs the potential to extend the unit’s backlog by a minimum of 120 days and up to 485 days. The deal adds to and will be a direct continuation of the previously announced 12-month contract with General Hydrocarbon Limited (GHL). Øystein Stray Spetalen-backed company said the effective dayrate associated with the minimum firm period of the contract is $325,000, including the mobilisation fee. “The final award of the contract for Blackford Dolphin shows the opportunities in Nigeria at a strong dayrate, in addition to building on the backlog for the rig. It also underlines the attractiveness of our assets, and we look forward to returning to revenue-generating operations in 2023,” noted Bjørnar Iversen, CEO of Dolphin Drilling. Source: Dolphin Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
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