Long-cycle oil production remains on “life support,†while shale output’s future climb will likely be more moderate than many analysts expect, John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation, said.
“Shale is not the next Saudi Arabia,†Hess said during a Center for Strategic and International Studies event.
Hess said the resource base of shale is not as strong as that of Saudi Arabia, and the US cannot sustain its current growth rate. Still, shale will make up as much as 11% of the world’s oil supply by the middle of next decade, up from 6% now, Hess said.
US oil production averaged nearly 10.95 million b/d in 2018, a new record and up from about 6.5 million b/d of oil output averaged throughout 2012, the US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday. EIA expects that US oil output crossed the 12 million b/d threshold in January.
Nearly all of that growth has been fueled by shale, particularly in the Permian recently, EIA said.
But Hess said Friday that investors, who have pumped $50 billion in public equity and $20 billion in private equity into production projects, are now pushing producers to slash costs, likely preventing a surge in output.
“It’s gone from drill baby drill to show me the money,†Hess said. “The focus was on production growth, now it’s on financial returns.â€
Hess said that the lack of investment in long-cycle production could also complicate the future supply picture. He said oil company leases in deepwater Gulf of Mexico blocks fell to about 2,500 this year, down from 8,800 in 2004 while global exploration budgets have plummeted.
“The true challenge is investment,†he said. “We need stable prices to encourage more investment.â€
Photo used under CC 2.0 Author: Chad Teer
Source: Platts
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