Current News

Home   >   Current News   

Goldman raises Q3 Brent price forecast to $75 per bbl

Rig Lynx
  • By Rig Lynx
  • Feb 22, 2021
  • Category : Current News
  • Views : 146

 

Goldman Sachs Commodities Research raised by $10 its Brent crude oil price forecasts for the second and third quarters of 2021, citing lower expected inventories, higher marginal costs to restart upstream activity and speculative inflows.

 

The Wall Street bank expects Brent prices to reach $70 per barrel in the second quarter from the $60 it predicted previously and to $75 in the third quarter from $65 earlier.

 

“We believe this faster rebalancing during what was expected to be the dark days of winter will be followed by a widening deficit this spring as demand rebounds faster than supply, setting the stage for a tight physical market,” Goldman said in a note dated Sunday.

 

The bank now expects global oil demand to reach 100 million barrels per day (bpd) by late July 2021 versus its previous expectation of August 2021.

 

Oil prices rose on Monday as the slow return of U.S. crude output that was cut by frigid conditions raised concerns about supply just as demand rebounds.

 

Goldman expects the freeze in Texas to lead to a 1.5 million bpd global deficit this month and cut output by 0.2 million bpd in March due to infrastructure damage and missed completions.

 

An agreement to hike production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in the upcoming March meeting will not be bearish for prices as supply is set to lag, Goldman said.

 

It expects a 0.5 million bpd increase in quotas in April, with Saudi Arabia reversing its unilateral 1 million bpd cut and continues to expect moderate exports from Iran this year.

 

“The key uncertainty for now is at which price level producers finally ramp-up activity... we are raising our marginal cost assumption by $5 per barrel to $60 per barrel Brent for the remainder of 2021,” Goldman said.

 

Last week, UBS raised their Brent price forecast to $68 per barrel for the second half of this year.

 

Source: Reuters

 

Join our mailing list here


We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network"

Come join our community!

Download the Rig Lynx app here

Comments (0)

Leave Comment


Check out our other stories

Rig Lynx
Feb 24, 2021

  Mozambique is experiencing an influx of investment across energy, agriculture, tourism, construction and mining sectors, positioning the country for transformative economic growth. The benefits of ongoing megaprojects, however, have the potential to extend beyond government revenues and critical infrastructure and to local capacity building and the assurance of sustainable socioeconomic improvement. In a bid to increase country-wide living standards and boost local participation in expanding sectors, Mozambique is prioritizing the expansion of local content policies and leveraging large-scale developments to capitalize on skills transfer and training initiatives.   In response to large-scale developments taking place across the country, the Government of Mozambique has enacted several local content requirements to ensure that the flow of capital extends to local communities and economies. Notably, the country is in the process of passing a revised Local Content Law, which aims to increase local participation through the enforcement of a minimum percentage requirement, ensure preference is given to local suppliers, encourage technology transfer and require the presentation of a local content plan by enterprises to relevant authorities on an annual basis, among other key provisions. Additionally, the Local Content Law will be monitored and managed by an independent public entity that will determine certification of companies and specific local content requirements. The Law aims to significantly increase indigenous participation across sectors, with a view to driving employment and the creation of local industries.   One of the primary challenges hindering the realization of local content policies, however, is a lack of local capacity. Despite enforcement of policies that promote inclusivity of and increased participation by the local workforce, the lack of a highly skilled workforce, characteristic of industries such as mining and extractives, continue to reduce compliance. Therefore, the transfer of skills, knowledge and technology from foreign entities to local counterparts has emerged as a key priority. In fact, the proliferation of multi-sector developments in Mozambique presents unique opportunities for international companies to utilize projects as an avenue for capacity building.   Many large-scale developments rely on an international workforce; by re-injecting knowledge and transferring skills to the local community, projects can significantly expand their available resources, spurring long-term and sustainable economic growth in the process. Secondly, local content requirements imposed by government can help facilitate regional networks, otherwise underutilized. Since partnerships with local companies are already required under current local content regulations, integration and collaboration with the local workforce can ensure enhanced cooperation across the value chain. Notably, projects such as the Total’s Mozambique LNG are establishing a series of high-impact initiatives and education-based programs in a bid to transfer knowledge and spearhead local capacity building.   Source: Africa Oil and Power   Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here

Rig Lynx
Feb 24, 2021

  In its Q4 Highlights and 2020 Results, Dallas-based Kosmos Energy provided update on its operations and future plans in Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, and Mauritania/Senegal where it is partnered on the mega Phase 1 of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project.   Production in Equatorial Guinea averaged approximately 31,200 bopd gross and 10,500 bopd net in the fourth quarter of 2020. As forecasted, Kosmos lifted 1.5 cargos from Equatorial Guinea during the quarter for a total of 4.5 cargos net in 2020.   In 2021, partners have commenced the second phase of the planned electrical submersible pump program as well an infrastructure enhancement campaign to increase operational uptime across the assets. Our first infill drilling campaign is expected to start in the second quarter with three wells planned.   In Mauritania and Senegal, Phase 1 of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project made good progress in the quarter and was around 50% complete by year end. The project remains on track for first gas in the first half of 2023.   To fund its current interest, Kosmos has established a financing path to first gas including the sale of the Company’s interest in the FPSO, the re-financing of the National Oil Company loans and a direct investment in Kosmos’ Mauritania and Senegal position. Good progress has been made with the FPSO sale with Kosmos and BP signing a Memorandum of Understanding this month outlining the key terms of the transaction. Closing is now targeted within the second quarter of 2021. The sale of the FPSO is expected to reduce Kosmos’ cash requirements to first gas by approximately $320 million as previously communicated.   The strong progress with Phase 1 is enabling the advancement of Phase 2 towards final investment decision, which is targeted for the end of 2022. Kosmos continues to collaborate with operator BP and the National Oil Companies of Mauritania and Senegal on a more capital efficient project, which leverages the infrastructure built in Phase 1 to reduce costs and enhance the returns of future phases. With lower capital requirements from an optimized scheme, Kosmos expects to fund its interest in Phase 2 largely from Phase 1 cash flows.   In Ghana, production averaged approximately 24,300 barrels of oil per day (bopd) net in the fourth quarter of 2020. As forecasted, Kosmos lifted three cargos from Ghana during the fourth quarter for a total of 10 cargos in 2020.   Gross production rates at Jubilee averaged approximately 75,500 bopd during the quarter with FPSO uptime of around 95%. TEN production averaged approximately 43,200 bopd gross for the fourth quarter with FPSO uptime of 98%.   In early 2021, the Catenary Anchor Leg Mooring (CALM) buoy was commissioned with the first offloading taking place in February. The CALM buoy will replace the need for shuttle tankers and is expected to reduce operating expenses going forward. Infill drilling is also expected to resume in the second quarter with drilling planned for three wells on Jubilee and one on TEN in 2021. The partnership entered into a rig contract of up to four years for the Maersk Venturer, which is expected to arrive on location in the second quarter.   Source: Petroleum Africa   Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here

Rig Lynx
Feb 24, 2021

  Seadrill Limited announces that Seadrill New Finance Limited (the “Issuer”), a subsidiary of the Company, has agreed to extend the existing forbearance agreement announced on 11 February 2021 with respect to the 12.0% senior secured notes due 2025 (the “Notes”) with certain holders of the Notes (the “Note Holders”).   Pursuant to the forbearance agreement, as extended, the consenting Note Holders have agreed not to exercise any enforcement rights with respect to the Issuer and any subsidiary of the Issuer which is an obligor under the Notes to, or otherwise take actions in respect of, certain events of default that may arise under the Notes as a result of, amongst other things, the Issuer not making the semi-annual 4% cash interest payment due to the senior secured noteholders on 15 January 2021 in respect of their Notes and the filing of Chapter 11 cases in the Southern District of Texas by the Company and certain of its consolidated subsidiaries (excluding the Issuer and its consolidated subsidiaries) until and including the earlier of 10 March 2021 and any termination of the forbearance agreement.   The purpose of the forbearance agreement is to allow the Issuer and its stakeholders more time to negotiate on the heads of terms of a comprehensive restructuring of its balance sheet. Such a restructuring may involve the use of a court-supervised process.   Source: Seadrill   Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here