Highlights – First Quarter
• Secured drilling contract for West Bollsta with Lundin Norway AS with expected commencement Q2 2020, adding backlog of approximately $200 million
• Wintershall Norge AS exercised the third front end option for West Mira
Subsequent Events
• Exercised option to purchase Cobalt Explorer for $350 million and flexible delivery schedule into Q1 2021
• Wintershall Norge AS exercised fourth and final front end option for West Mira bringing commencement forward to mid Q3 2019
• Entered into financing for West Bollsta delivery instalment through upsizing the existing senior secured term loan by $200 million
• Agreed revolving credit facility with Sterna Finance for $100 million and a three year tenor
Outlook
The Company continues to have a positive long term view on the offshore drilling market.
Significant improved project economics has led to breakeven prices of close to $30 per barrel for several large deepwater developments, making offshore highly competitive compared to other conventional and unconventional alternatives. The first phase of the Liza development outside Guyana where project economics have been guided to be more than three times the economics of a standard Permian Basin field is a testament to the recovery and competiveness of offshore. Further, improved cash flows for E&P companies has resulted in substantial increases in new major offshore project approvals with FID’s in 2019 expected to be close to three times higher than in 2016. This trend is expected to continue going forward resulting in increased demand for offshore drilling units.
Since 2014, a total of 125 floaters have been scrapped, representing a reduction of 30% compared to the total fleet in 2014. A significant portion of the non-marketed floater fleet is older than 30 years and have been stacked for more than two years. Up to 50 of these rigs represent future scrapping candidates due to reactivation costs that can exceed $100 million. With less than 20 uncontracted competitive floater newbuilds, the global floater fleet is expected to continue to shrink going forward.
Marketed utilization for floaters has increased from 57% at cyclical lows to 80% today, being driven further by Tier 1 drillships utilizations approaching 85%. With recent consolidation six drilling contractors now control approximately 75% of the premium drillship market. Drilling contractors are finally showing a more disciplined approached in contract tenders, especially for contracts with start-up in 2020 and beyond. Several data-points of deepwater rates at close to $300,000 per day have already been observed. Leading edge day rate for premium drillships is expected to continue its trend higher as drilling contractors are increasingly unwilling to commit to future work unless economics are at a substantial premium to current observed rates. The number of projects requiring certain high specification drilling units is also increasing, especially in the Gulf of Mexico with high pressure drilling operation requiring drillships with unique capabilities. With the Company’s three high specification drillships having forward delivery in 2021, Northern Drilling is in a unique position to benefit from the improving fundamentals observed in the deepwater market.
The harsh environment market for modern rigs is close to fully booked. Leading edge day rate for premium units is expected to take another step increase and approach $400,000 per day, when considering a market standard bonus mechanism. The Company was a first mover in acquiring its two harsh environment units at the trough of this cycle at attractive prices. Both units are now fully contracted and expected to further benefit from increases in day rates through the market indexed options in the contracts with Lundin and Wintershall.
Full report here
Photo By lappino – shipspotting.com
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