Archives

Home   >   Archives   

Offshore rig market expectations don’t match reality- Bassoe Commentary

Rig Lynx
  • By Rig Lynx
  • May 23, 2019
  • Category : Archives
  • Views : 679

Recent long-term offshore drilling contract awards might not fit with investors’ expectations, but it’s the expectations that are the problem, not the reality.

I don’t normally comment on drilling contractor share prices (and I’m not telling you to buy anything), but the latest share price reaction to some of the great news and developments in the market indicates that expectations and reality were on separate planets.

I get it.  People are tired of waiting.  Expectations for a strong recovery have been around for a long time.  Offshore drilling is normally cyclical, and it’s easy to say that conditions will return to previous highs at similar frequencies as they did before. 

So when the market hears that drilling contractors – in 2019 (gasp) – are committing rigs for long-lead, long-term contracts at horrifyingly low dayrates, it goes into a meltdown.

“Newbuild jackup owners are accepting contracts at $80,000 dayrates until 2021?!  Dude, you’ve gotta be kidding me!”

“Diamond Offshore tied up two drillships for under $300,000 per day with Woodside in Senegal? What have they done?!”

Offshore rig market sentiment has been relying on expectations of an outcome that had virtually no chance of happening by now.

It’s pretty good now.  What more can you expect?

For jackups, we’ve seen long-awaited jackup tenders from Qatar Petroleum and Pemex which will employ up to 24 rigs for two to four years finally being awarded.  Shelf and Saipem have announced multi-year contracts in the Middle East.  And Southeast Asia is seeing heavy contracting activity.

Competitive jackup utilization has moved up to around 75% and will continue rising as it’s supported by new demand. 

To meet this demand, rig owners who don’t have available rigs are looking to Chinese shipyards for assets to bareboat (or acquire).  Until this year, and for the past three years, nobody except for China-owned COSL (who’s already secured at least six rigs) has taken a distressed newbuild jackup out of a shipyard. 

The floating rig market is experiencing better conditions too (utilization is in the 60% range).  Demand in West Africa, Brazil, Guyana, and the US Gulf of Mexico is pushing utilization up. 

Diamond Offshore’s four-year (combined) award for two rigs in Senegal indicates that dayrates are moving up to realistic levels.  This may be balanced by lower dayrates in the delayed Petrobras tenders, but the rising trend is there. 

None of this changes the fact that more backlog is needed.  It will come, but temper your expectations.  Expect good (and a few great) developments to occur, not miraculous ones. 

So here’s the reality: the next cycle in this industry won’t look the same as previous ones

The reality is that:

1) The market is good compared to what it was

2) The market will get better

3) Dayrates will rise

But:

4) A growing number of oil companies are realizing that a growing number of their investors want to see more focus on alternative energy sources because they think that oil is bad and has a limited future

5) Oil companies will probably never stop caring about maintaining some degree of cost consciousness when they hire rigs after the shock they suffered in 2015

6) Oil companies will continue being selective about offshore investments

Therefore:

7) Market forces will calibrate themselves at different levels than before

8) Drilling contractors will find ways to cut costs via digitalization, innovation, and prudent asset management (selective upgrading and scrapping) so that they can make more money off lower dayrates

The reality is that the offshore rig market faces some perpetual challenges.  The reality is that many rig owners will find ways to overcome them.  That alone will be exciting.

And even if the path before us will be different than it was before, it doesn’t mean that there aren’t any reasons to be optimistic about the reality that faces the offshore rig industry.

Can read the rest here- Source: Bassoe

Check out our other current stories!

Join the largest oil and gas community on iOS and Android!

Download the app here!

Rig Lynx was launched December 2017, our oil and gas news was viewed over 373,000 times in 2018 and our social networking application generated over 268,000 clicks in 2018. Our current foothold has rivaled the largest in the industry and we are just getting started.

For a complimentary copy of our 2018 Reach Report please send us an email at info@riglynx.com and we will be happy to show you our progress!

Comments (0)

Leave Comment


Check out our other stories

Rig Lynx
Mar 09, 2023

  Valaris Limited announced new contracts awarded subsequent to issuing the Company’s most recent fleet status report on February 21, 2023.   Three-year contract with Petrobras for drillship VALARIS DS-8. The rig will be reactivated for this contract. The total contract value is approximately $500 million, including a $30 million mobilization fee. 100-day contract with a TotalEnergies affiliate for drillship VALARIS DS-12. The contract is expected to commence in second quarter 2023. 70-day contract with Beach Energy offshore New Zealand for heavy duty modern jackup VALARIS 107. The contract is expected to commence in third quarter 2023. The total contract value is approximately $26 million. President and Chief Executive Officer Anton Dibowitz said, “We are particularly pleased to have secured the award for preservation stacked drillship VALARIS DS-8, for a contract that is expected to generate a meaningful return over the firm contract term, and we remain focused on exercising our operational leverage in a disciplined manner. This most recent award represents the sixth contract awarded to one of our high-quality stacked floaters since mid-2021, and speaks volumes about our demonstrated track record of project execution when reactivating rigs.”   Dibowitz added, “Following the reactivation of VALARIS DS-17 and DS-8, we will have ten floaters working across the golden triangle, including four drillships in Brazil, a market where we expect to see continued growth over the next several years.”   Updated Guidance   As a result of the contract awarded to VALARIS DS-8, which will require the rig to be reactivated from preservation stack, we are updating our first quarter 2023 and full-year 2023 guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call on February 21, 2023.   First Quarter 2023   Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $5 million to $385 million to $395 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $5 million to negative $5 million to breakeven. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $25 million to $30 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Full-Year 2023   Revenues are anticipated to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $60 million to $1.49 billion to $1.59 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $60 million to $180 million to $220 million. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $280 million to $320 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Capital expenditures are expected to increase by $60 million to $320 million to $360 million. Source: Valaris Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here  

Rig Lynx
Mar 09, 2023

  Seadrill Limited announced that the West Neptune has executed approximately six months of term extensions with LLOG Exploration Offshore, L.L.C in the US Gulf of Mexico.   The extensions will commence in direct continuation of the existing term, and will keep the rig busy until Q3 2024, furthering Seadrill and LLOG’s long-term association. Total contract value for the extension is approximately $79 million. Source: Seadrill   Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here  

Rig Lynx
Mar 09, 2023

  Semisub rig owner Dolphin Drilling has inked a new contract with Peak Petroleum in Nigeria for its 1974-built Blackford Dolphin.   The firm contract, which follows the letter of award in January, gives the Euronext Growth-listed owner of three rigs the potential to extend the unit’s backlog by a minimum of 120 days and up to 485 days. The deal adds to and will be a direct continuation of the previously announced 12-month contract with General Hydrocarbon Limited (GHL).   Øystein Stray Spetalen-backed company said the effective dayrate associated with the minimum firm period of the contract is $325,000, including the mobilisation fee.   “The final award of the contract for Blackford Dolphin shows the opportunities in Nigeria at a strong dayrate, in addition to building on the backlog for the rig. It also underlines the attractiveness of our assets, and we look forward to returning to revenue-generating operations in 2023,” noted Bjørnar Iversen, CEO of Dolphin Drilling.   Source: Dolphin   Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here