The Covid-19 pandemic has devastated global oil demand while producing countries fail to agree on output cuts, and as onlookers have predicted, it was a matter of time until shut-ins would start. A Rystad Energy analysis shows that Canada is the oil producer most affected so far, with the damage estimated to reach above 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in shut-in production in the second quarter of 2020.
Thus far, Canada is estimated to have shut-in oil production of at least 325,000 bpd, followed by Iraq (300,000 bpd), Venezuela (235,000 bpd) and Brazil (200,000 bpd). Although the US is also likely to be shutting-in hundreds of thousands of barrels of production as well, numbers are not yet official and are not included in our estimates.
“Due to the severity of demand destruction in North America in April and May, we estimate that shuttered oil sands and heavy oil curtailments in Western Canada could exceed 1.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2020, with additional near-term downside risk,“ says Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Thomas Liles.
Our curtailment forecasts for the rest of the year have increased to 513,000 bpd for the third quarter and 293,000 bpd for the fourth quarter.
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