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Several oil majors, including Royal Dutch Shell and BP, are boosting their share of natural gas output. A Bloomberg report said these two oil companies, by increasing gas production, are trimming the lead between them and ExxonMobil, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company. ExxonMobil has a current market cap of $348 bn, while Shell has market cap of $317 bn, and BP at $156 bn.
BP expects by 2020 to produce about 60 percent gas and 40 percent oil, a reversal from 2014 when it was the opposite – a pivot that many other oil companies will likely follow. ExxonMobil for its part currently produces about 55 percent oil and 45 percent gas and remains the largest natural gas producer in the US. Shell’s acquisition of UK-based BG Group for $50 bn in 2016 boosted the share of natural gas to 50 percent of its global fossil fuels output and made it the world’s largest natural gas trader.
Steve Hill, executive vice president for gas trading at Shell said recently “we see the market growing rapidly, with gas demand growing faster than overall energy demand,†adding that “we don’t see renewables as being a threat to gas.â€
Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co., based in St. Louis, said in reference to gas that “in the fossil fuel area, it’s the one clear growth part of the business.â€
LNG is also increasingly taking a larger share of gas trade. LNG’s share of total gas trade is forecast to rise from a third last year to almost 40 percent in 2023, with much of this increase attributed to LNG demand growth in China. According to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), Chinese demand for natural gas will rise by almost 60 percent between 2017 and 2023 to 376 billion cubic meters (bcm). This includes a rise in its LNG imports to 93 bcm by 2023 from 51 bcm in 2017.
Emerging markets in Asia, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and Pakistan, will account for about half of global LNG imports by 2023. This continued and sustained rise in LNG demand will have significant impacts on trade flows, LNG pricing structures and global gas security. (continued on page 2)
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Projected gas demand
BP in its 2018 Energy Outlook projects that natural gas demand continues to grow strongly to 2040, supported by broad-based demand and the continuing expansion of LNG.
Global LNG supplies more than double over the BP outlook period, with around 40 percent of that expansion occurring over the next five years. The Outlook added that the sustained growth in global LNG supplies greatly increases the availability of gas around the world, with LNG volumes overtaking inter-regional pipeline shipments in the early 2020s.
Shell in its LNG Outlook 2018  added that global LNG markets have continued to defy expectations, growing by 29 million tonnes in 2017, more than 30 percent more than expected. Based on current demand projections, Shell sees potential for a supply shortage developing in the mid-2020s, unless new LNG production project commitments are made soon.
Moreover, since the start of the century, the number of countries importing LNG has quadrupled, while the number of countries supplying LNG has almost doubled. LNG trade increased from 100 million tonnes in 2000 to nearly 300 million tonnes in 2017.
Finally, as buyers procure more of the super-cooled fuel on the spot market and via shorter-term deals, amid a re-configuring of contract conditions and the removal of restrictive clauses such as take-or-pay and destination clauses, the fuel will increasingly trade more like a true commodity, similar to iron ore and even crude oil.
While Big Oil and global oil markets will still dominate the headlines due to geopolitical dynamics as well as still growing oil demand growth amid supply concerns (at least in the short to mid-term), gas with LNG as a large part of the equation will command more attention and increasingly move out of the shadow of oil markets – a development that many in the industry claim is long overdue.
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Valaris Limited announced new contracts awarded subsequent to issuing the Company’s most recent fleet status report on February 21, 2023. Three-year contract with Petrobras for drillship VALARIS DS-8. The rig will be reactivated for this contract. The total contract value is approximately $500 million, including a $30 million mobilization fee. 100-day contract with a TotalEnergies affiliate for drillship VALARIS DS-12. The contract is expected to commence in second quarter 2023. 70-day contract with Beach Energy offshore New Zealand for heavy duty modern jackup VALARIS 107. The contract is expected to commence in third quarter 2023. The total contract value is approximately $26 million. President and Chief Executive Officer Anton Dibowitz said, “We are particularly pleased to have secured the award for preservation stacked drillship VALARIS DS-8, for a contract that is expected to generate a meaningful return over the firm contract term, and we remain focused on exercising our operational leverage in a disciplined manner. This most recent award represents the sixth contract awarded to one of our high-quality stacked floaters since mid-2021, and speaks volumes about our demonstrated track record of project execution when reactivating rigs.” Dibowitz added, “Following the reactivation of VALARIS DS-17 and DS-8, we will have ten floaters working across the golden triangle, including four drillships in Brazil, a market where we expect to see continued growth over the next several years.” Updated Guidance As a result of the contract awarded to VALARIS DS-8, which will require the rig to be reactivated from preservation stack, we are updating our first quarter 2023 and full-year 2023 guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call on February 21, 2023. First Quarter 2023 Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $5 million to $385 million to $395 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $5 million to negative $5 million to breakeven. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $25 million to $30 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Full-Year 2023 Revenues are anticipated to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Contract drilling expense is expected to increase by approximately $60 million to $1.49 billion to $1.59 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by approximately $60 million to $180 million to $220 million. Adjusted EBITDAR, which adds back one-time reactivation expense, is expected to be $280 million to $320 million, unchanged from the guidance provided on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Capital expenditures are expected to increase by $60 million to $320 million to $360 million. Source: Valaris Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
Seadrill Limited announced that the West Neptune has executed approximately six months of term extensions with LLOG Exploration Offshore, L.L.C in the US Gulf of Mexico. The extensions will commence in direct continuation of the existing term, and will keep the rig busy until Q3 2024, furthering Seadrill and LLOG’s long-term association. Total contract value for the extension is approximately $79 million. Source: Seadrill Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
Semisub rig owner Dolphin Drilling has inked a new contract with Peak Petroleum in Nigeria for its 1974-built Blackford Dolphin. The firm contract, which follows the letter of award in January, gives the Euronext Growth-listed owner of three rigs the potential to extend the unit’s backlog by a minimum of 120 days and up to 485 days. The deal adds to and will be a direct continuation of the previously announced 12-month contract with General Hydrocarbon Limited (GHL). Øystein Stray Spetalen-backed company said the effective dayrate associated with the minimum firm period of the contract is $325,000, including the mobilisation fee. “The final award of the contract for Blackford Dolphin shows the opportunities in Nigeria at a strong dayrate, in addition to building on the backlog for the rig. It also underlines the attractiveness of our assets, and we look forward to returning to revenue-generating operations in 2023,” noted Bjørnar Iversen, CEO of Dolphin Drilling. Source: Dolphin Join our mailing list here We are #1 on Google and Bing for the "Largest Mobile Energy Network" Come join our community! Download the Rig Lynx app here
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